Tuesday 11 September 2012

Conclusion:

In today's age, it cannot be denied that there will always be conflict over issues that are hard to resolve. As our society continues building and modernising, the need for more and more resources will create disharmony and uncertainty. If too much tension is built, all these emotion may turn into violence and millions of lives could be lost due to senseless sparring. However, if we can continue to adopt diplomatic and preventive measures and follow the aforementioned examples in the articles, we can avoid having to later bear the consequences of our current actions. Preventing war and ensuring peace should be a top priority on all countries' agenda and we should all strive to maintain healthy relations with all of the other nations, which would greatly benefit not only the governments, but also the people of all different countries. With measures taken by the governments, we need not worry about wars or fights and can instead focus on living fruitful and meaningful lives. As singer John Lennon once sang : " I hope someday you will join us / And the world will live as one. "



Article 4: Conflict between North Korea and South Korean Island

Summary: 


This article is about the recent conflict between North Korea and South Korean island of Yeonpyeong, near a disputed maritime border. According to analysts, this is one of the worst clashes since the Korean war ended. It is said that at least 50 North Korean shells had started falling in the waters and landed directly on the island of Yeonpyeong at 1434 local time (0534 GMT), most of them hitting a South Korean military base there. Many were injured and the island's residents were evacuated to shelters. The South's military fired back 80+ shells. 

Earlier, the president's office said that North Korea's shelling of Yeonpyeong island constitutes a clear armed provocation whereas North Korea's supreme military command blamed South Korea for the incident, saying that The South Korean enemy had committed military provocations of firing artillery shells into their maritime territory near Yeonpyeong island earlier that day. However, South Korean military officials later said that it had been conducting regular military drills in the sea off Yeonpyeong before the incident, and that no fire was aimed towards North Korea. There was more condemnation of North Korea from Russia, EU and the UK, although China - the North's main ally - refused to apportion blame.

Full article: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-11818005
Related: http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704369304575631990334666872.html

Personal Commentary:

In my opinion, I think that the importance in conflicts like this to not push the blame on either party and also not to find out who is the ultimate one 'responsible' for the occurrence of the conflict. Countries involve in the conflict should, in fact try to do more to contribute to peace and help restore their own country instead as blaming each other after such conflicts does not do anything to help the situation. Moreover, if the countries' government start to comment things like "Country A is responsible for the conflict and we have no wrong." openly on press conferences etc., it leads the people to have a misconception of what is really happening and contributes to the escalating of the already tense relationship between both countries (eg. North and South Korea).

As mentioned above, both countries were blaming each other for the conflict and in fact, if there has to be someone responsible, I think that both countries are responsible for this tense relationship (hence indirectly leading to this conflict) with each other since many decades ago due to various reasons because after all, it takes two hands to clap. Also, this 'blaming' also increases the vulnerability of a country as others might use this bad relationship between these countries to start more conflicts and escalate the tension.

I do agree that an already-tense relationship over a stretch of many years is not easy to improve and people will take an even longer time to make peace as the concept of North/South Koreans being "arch-enemies" have been so familiar in their hearts (most of the conflicts of the North/South Korea are caused due to the conflict of ideology led by the differences in value and belief).

However, I also believe that as long as the government of both South and North Korea were to take steps and implement policies related to deterrence and diplomacy, the protection of their countries will definitely be improved (less vulnerable to external threats and more friendly ties with other countries) and this gives the people a sense of security and develops their loyalty to their own country. Also, with diplomacy (and bilateral ties) instilled, it will benefit both countries as they will be able to have a better trade relationships (economy can improve) as well as to promote political, economical and cultural ties between each other. This will hence help in the long run to lessen the tension between them and hence reduce the impact of the conflict in ideology.

Article 3: Sensaku conflict between China and Japan





Summary of  Article: 

This article is telling us about the rising tensions between Japan and China over the matter of 8 uninhabited islands located along the East China Sea which both countries claim to own them. Tensions between both were heightened when Japan activists arrived on islands, which were tightly watched on, raising the Japanese flag to show Japan’s rightful control over the islands. This move triggered large scale conflict in several parts of China in demand for the Japanese to leave the islands. Rows over the disputed islands have caused Sino-Japanese ties to freeze in the past with conflicts occuring as recent as 2010. 



Personal Commentary:

I personally feel that the importance of this conflict lies in how Sensaku/Diaoyu Island is critical in deciding the ownership of the rich resources surrounding it and also the sovereignty of both China and Japan. It is certainly no doubt that both countries want a piece of the islands and will not step aside easily during this period of time. Also, such a conflict involves the nation’s pride as the government of the country will have to be firm in its decision in guarding the islands of their territories. However, such a conflict cannot go on forever and especially for the Asian powers China and Japan. Relations between both are important as it can affect the economy and trade industries of other Asian countries as well. I strongly believe that both countries have critical roles to play in preventing such a conflict to spiral out of control.  From what I've witnessed in news reports, efforts have been made from both sides to better control the situation. 



Recent reports show that Japanese Prime Minister Toshihiko Noda and Chinese President Hu Jintao met briefly on the sidelines of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation(APEC) summit on 9th September after weeks of tension over the territorial dispute, with Japan calling for the neighbours to deepen mutuallly beneficial relations, Japanese media said. Although no meeting have been scheduled but the Japanese prime minister said on Friday he would not shun a brief talk. Such comments made can largely reduce the tensions present though I believe more can still be done to negotiate through peaceful talks conducted between both countries so that a common stand can eventually be discussed and agreed upon on and neither China or Japan are treated unfairly in the decision made for the ownership of the islands.
This shows us the importance of diplomacy between countries on the way how they conducted relations between one another, through tough times especially so as to resolve the conflicts or threat present in a peaceful manner. It is also critical in how countries work through bilateral ties and inter-relationships so as to avoid any violent means which can result in great loss of property and lives. 



Article 2: Conflict between Iraq and Kuwait ( Gulf War )


More regarding the article: http://oilprice.com/Geopolitics/Middle-East/Could-War-Flare-Again-Between-Iraq-And-Kuwait.html

Summary of Article: 

During the Iran-Iraq war which ended in 1988, Iraq sustained heavy casualties and faced severe economic problems. Iraq suffered about US$230 billion in damages and also owed about US$80 billion in debts to other countries such as the US and France which provided Iraq with war supplies. Iraq decided to solve the problem by earning more revenue from the sale of oil. However, oil prices were declining due to overproduction of oil by countries such as Kuwait and UAE. As a result, Iraq lost a lot of revenue due to the falling oil prices. Iraq also felt that the action of Kuwait and the UAE was equivalent to waging an economic war on Iraq as 90% of its income came from the sale of oil. This worsened their relationship as Iraq saw Kuwait’s refusal to stop overproduction of oil as an attack on its interest and hence Iraq decided to launch an attack on Kuwait. The dispute over territory at the Rumaila oilfield as well as the Bubiyan and Warbah Islands also contributed to the conflict, which raised tensions between the two nations and eventually caused Iraq to invade Kuwait and escalate a large-scale war which involved other countries such as Saudi Arabia and the USA.
Personal Commentary:

I feel that it is indeed impossible for one party to willingly submit to the demands of the other party to solve the complications between them. This is where diplomacy should come in so as to resolve the conflict in a peaceful and non-violent manner. In my opinion, war and violence is not the solution to the conflict and that there are many alternatives in solving the problem. 

Through diplomacy, each party can make agreements with each other and also create friendly ties to prevent the occurrence of a war. In this conflict, the measure implemented to resolve the problem was the mediation by the Arab League where it requested for Kuwait to lower their oil production levels. The negotiations seemed to be going on well but Kuwait did not intend to adhere to these quotas and also refused to give in to any territorial demands and Iraq finally invaded Kuwait. Therefore, it was rather ineffective as it did not really solve the complications of both nations. 

I feel that Kuwait was wrong to ignore the quota set by OPEC and produced oil well above the assigned limits because it was directly affecting the development of Iraq’s economy which was already severely damaged in the first place. Kuwait should also empathise with Iraq’s situation and not worsen the conflict by reducing the price of oil, knowing that oil was Iraq’s major export. However, Iraq is also wrong to invade Kuwait as a mode of retaliation. Iraq should have tried to resolve the conflict peacefully and make agreements with Kuwait in order to settle the problem. The war resulted in heavy casualties on both sides as Iraq did not agree to withdraw from Kuwait, causing coalition forces to open fire on Iraq’s troops. Many lives could be saved if such a devastating war did not occur and tensions between both countries will also cease if both nations were willing to cooperate with each other without having to fight. 

This links to the topic in which deterrence and diplomacy are alternatives to resolve complications with two parties in a peaceful manner and therefore, there will be no casualties. We can learn from this issue and prevent the loss of lives in the future.

Article 1: China and Taiwan Relations







Summary of article :
This article talks about the conflict between China and Taiwan. The KMT ruled the island of Taiwan from 1949-2000 and made discriminatory laws against the Taiwanese then. After the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) got elected in 2000, they have made policies to strive away from the Kuomintang (KMT) party and become an independent country. The party has tried to break away from China but the government believes in a “one China” principle and regards Taiwan as unpatriotic and untrustworthy. There is much tension and there is a possibility of war as China has adopted policies which enable them to use violence if their power is threatened. As such, Taiwan and China have significantly increased their military powers the people in the countries have very strong opinions about this conflict.

Personal commentary:
Speaking from an objective view, I feel that China is too harsh on Taiwan and is playing a bully. On the February 27 1947, a violent anti-government fight broke out and between 10 000 to 30 000 people were killed. This incident was then called the 228 incident and it happened because of the anti-government tension the Taiwanese were feeling when the KMT ruled them.  As such, it is only right that Taiwan be able to break away from China and away from the party that has caused mass destruction in their country. 

However, China still wants to control Taiwan as they feel that having more territories would result in ultimate power for them, as evident in the “one China” mindset.  The people in both countries are have negative feelings towards one another and many are rallying for their own cause, though this has seemed to settle a bit in the recent years, though, there is still much tension between these two countries as the battle for Taiwan’s independence movement continues.


If not handled carefully, the tension between them could escalate into a violent conflict which would lead to possibly more deaths and tragedies than the 228 incident. In order for it to not happen, these two countries have adopted certain deterrent and diplomatic policies to lessen the probability of war and manage the conflict. Between 1998 and 2007, $14 billion of arms were sold to Taiwan and high-tech planes and missiles. China has also deployed ballistic missiles along the Taiwan Strait and continues to modernize both its missile forces and its amphibious assault capabilities. This display of military strength helps to lessen the tension as both countries are now aware of the capabilities and brute strength both of them have. This makes them think twice before engaging in war as they are aware that they both stand to lose a huge amount of manpower and resource. As such, the possibility of conflicts is largely reduced.

Also, they have reduced tension by working together to improve each other’s economy. After entering the World Trade Organisation, both countries have lowered restrictions on investment and has led to an increase in business, from  $8 billion in 1991 to $115 billion in 2006 in the Taiwan Strait. China has also become Taiwan’s top export partner and second largest import partner. This is a significant step in reducing conflict as both countries are appreciating each other. With this increase in business, both countries are benefiting from the partnership they have forged and the economies in both countries are stable. As such, both countries now depend on each other for a lucrative economy and have uncoiled some of the tension and hate that they have. They have become more tolerant of each other and have improved relations between these two countries, hence the chances of war are reduced and conflict has settled significantly.

Although these measures are in place, there is still residual tension between China and Taiwan. However, I do feel that if these two countries continue using a diplomatic and deterrent method in approaching this conflict and make strides to improve the situation, there would be a day where peace and harmony would happen in these two countries.